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Richard Pomfret. Central Asia Turns South?
Trade Relations in Transition. The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Chatham House: London, 1999. 46 pages. $14,95 pbk. ISBN 1862030847.
The Central Asian Republics, once a part of the former USSR and independent
since 1991, have started to seek new trading partners and new markets.
However, the first years of their independence have been very hard mainly
because of the economic problems they are having. There are infrastructure
problems and not enough investment capital or experienced entrepreneurs,
which mean that these countries are less able to be competitive in world
markets.
The short book being reviewed here, written by Richard Pomfret, contains
five chapters. The first chapter presents a general outline of the trade
relations of the Central Asian republics and offers basic economic data
about the Central Asian countries in the Economic Cooperation Organization
(ECO) which includes Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan, who founded the ECO in
1985, and also includes since 1992 Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan . The ECO
succeeds the Regional Cooperation for Development Organization, and much
as the former organization did it promotes economic, technical, and cultural
cooperation.
The second chapter discusses the infrastructure in place in Central Asia
that is so important in determining the trade and development that occurs
in the region. As Pomfret points out, the transportation and telecommunications
infrastructure between the Central Asian republics and their southern
neighbors is generally poor. This part of the book also presents the important
debates going on related to the oil and gas pipelines that are being planned
for.
The third chapter focuses on the trade potential and trade policies of
the Central Asian countries. As the author points out, of the ECO countries
only Turkey and the Kyrgyz Republic are members of the World Trade Organization
(WTO) although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have WTO observer status and
are applying for membership. (Iran also became a member of the WTO in
2001) Pomfret concludes that the trading potential of the Central Asian
republics is less than that of the three largest economies of the ECO,
Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan, who have long been market economies involved
in world trade unlike the Central Asian countries that are in the process
of changing over from central planning. As for Afghanistan and Tajikistan,
in both countries civil wars have been going on for a long time limiting
their trade potential. This chapter also emphasizes the trading arrangements
in the region. As is pointed out, for the Central Asian republics, membership
in the ECO is the most important cooperative economic effort following
upon its cooperation with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Its importance is due to the fact that the population of the ECO countries
is 325 million people spread over 8 million square kilometers. Pomfret
goes on to argue that ECO membership for these countries also means that
there are few obstacles to intra-regional trade since the ECO provides
a forum for the discussion of any regional conflicts that occur so that
peaceful cooperation can be maintained while agreements signed in 1995
have specified the establishment of an ECO Trade and Development Bank
to be based in Istanbul, an ECO Reinsurance Company based in Pakistan
along with a shipping company and an airline. Although implementation
of these agreements has not yet occurred, the ECO members have committed
themselves to founding these four regional institutions.
In the fourth chapter, the patterns of trade of Central Asian countries
are examined since independence. Stated in this chapter are the facts
that trade with non-CIS countries is only changing gradually and that
the leading trading partners of the Central Asian countries are outside
of the region and include such partners as European countries and the
countries in North America and in East Asia. As Pomfret indicates, these
findings suggest that the future of the ECO is not yet determined since
how trade relations among the members will develop in the future is not
clear.
Thus, the last chapter studies the possibilities and prospects for greater
integration between the Central Asia countries and their southern neighbors.
Stated in this chapter are figures indicating that in recent years trade
between the Central Asian countries themselves and between them and the
CIS has been reduced indicating a trade gap. The question is how the gap
can be filled. Although Pomfret does feel that the ECO is potentially
important and likely to play a positive role in the region, at the end
of the book, he puts in an ECO trade matrix for 1996 that shows that in
that year exports valued at $ 3.753 million were sent from ECO countries
to other ECO countries while imports among them were valued at $ 5.030
million. These were figures that demonstrated limited growth. Thus, it
was concluded that the gap caused by reduced trade between the Central
Asian countries themselves and between them and the CIS might be filled
by increased trade with EU countries and the countries in North America
and East Asia.
Pomfret's short book poses the question of whether Central Asian countries
are turning south and then offers some clues as to why cooperation in
this direction did not develop. However, some important reasons are not
discussed. One is that there is extensive competition between Turkey,
Iran, and Pakistan which serves to hinder integration. There are also
political differences among the countries in the region that negatively
influence cooperative developments. For instance, before the September
11 attact, the countries that founded the ECO were supporting different
groups in Afghanistan. Turkey and Iran were supporting the Northern Alliance
while Pakistan was recognizing the Taliban governement. After the September
11 attack, the ECO itself was unable to provide a peace-keeping force
in Afghanistan despite on of its aims being that of securing peace in
the region. Nevertheless, the book is an important source of information
about the Economic Cooperation Organization.
Mehmet Dikkaya
Fatih University, Department of Economics
R. J. Barry Jones, Peter M. Jones, Ken Dark and Joel Peters. Introduction
to International Relations. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2001.
207 pages. 35.00 pounds hbk., 12.99 pounds pbk.
The author gives a new approach to international relations
rather than a traditional one in that; the traditional approaches turned
upon the central notion of the state, where the book concentrates on the
contemporary developments that threatens the central role of the state
in world affairs and explore their consequences.
The first three chapters of the book are devoted to the three 'levels
of analysis', and the author gives a broad explanation about how the international
relations have been studied traditionally through these levels for more
than three centuries.
In the following chapters, the author gives a broad explanation on the
international or inter-state system, sources, characteristic structures
and the formation of the system under the influence of 'balance of power'
concept, during and after the Cold War. Modern technologies of transport,
communication and information management facilitated the world-wide financial,
economic and even social integration. Thus, as a result of this integration,
a new stage has been reached in global social integration and the emergence
of a new global culture. So the globalization process became inevitable
and irresistible. The optimistic view of globalization identifies a wide
range of benefits in its economic, political and social manifestations.
But a range of observers from neo-Marxists to sceptical economic Realists
believe that the globalization confront the societies with substantial
problems and carry as a consequence, serious dangers of economic, environmental,
social and political danger.
Although globalization seems as the only direction to which the world
system go, some prominent developments also point towards an increasingly
regionalised world system either in economic or political manner. The
author gives the forms of regionalization as macro, meso and micro levels
and emphasises the causes, motives, major motors and problems and solutions
of regionalisation.
In the last chapter, the author discusses the 'fragmentation in world
affairs'. Pessimistic observers identify a clear pattern of social fregmentation
within the world's advanced industrial societies. The possible weakening
of effective international governance by the community of states and their
representatives both reflects and is a partial cause of the political
and social fregmentation that has characterized the last decade of the
20th century and the first years of the 21st. The book also discusses
the contemporary forms of fregmentation as political, economic, social
and intellectual. The sources, problems and the solutions to the problems
broght by fregmentation are also discussed at the end of the chapter.
As a conclusion, the book gives the students some of the major approaches
to international relations, past and present and introduces some of the
central ideas with which the subject has been studied during the 20th
century and some of the developments in the 21st. At the end of each chapter
the selected bibliographies are very useful for the students.
Altogether, the authors have produced a valuable work. Everyone interested
in international relations will want to have this book by his side.
Hasan Ali Yurtsever
Department of Mathematics, Fatih University
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